Vice-President JD Vance’s speech on Saturday to the Munich Security Conference (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCOsgfINdKg) may have marked a crucial turning-point in recent world history. This is not only for its signalling of the USA’s disengagement from the defence of Europe after eighty years, but because of the rationale Vance gave for that decision. This went way beyond the best reason he cited – that Europe should look to its own defence more, and not be so dependent on American generosity – which may have a great deal to be said for it (I broadly agree); and which it now looks as though Britain and other European nations may be taking on board. (See https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxgxl3grgo.)

But the speech was also important because of the deeper reason Vance gave for the split between them; which was that the USA and Europe no longer shared the same ‘values’ that had once united them. To illustrate this he focussed mainly on the issue of ‘free speech’, which he claimed was more under threat in Europe than it was in his own country; citing a number of alleged examples (including in Britain and here in Sweden) which – in my opinion – were at the very least distorted or exaggerated, and appeared to have been garnered from some of the furthest reaches of the Right-wing social media. Apparently these pose more of a threat to Europe than the military danger from those notable champions of free speech, Russia and China. This was quite explicit in what Vance said: ‘The threat that I worry most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within: the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values.’ Here we have the ‘culture wars’ – which I used to dismiss as mere undergraduate frippery – fully armed and on the prowl.

This may exemplify a seismic shift in global polarities. For over fifty years we’ve been used to the great political divide in the world being the one between liberal (or capitalist) countries on the one hand, and communist ones on the other. In the former camp you had most of the western European powers, plus the United States of America, and various other lesser actors. On the opposing side there were Soviet Russia and its eastern European and mid-Asian dependencies; together with China, espousing a different version of communism; and other quasi-socialist countries scattered around. But then came the fall of Soviet communism, leaving that camp broken, and the leadership of Russia in particular seeking to re-establish its former hegemony without the ideological cements that had bound it to its former ‘satellites’, in both Tsarist and Soviet times.

It was then that the great change took place, with leading players swapping teams, and fighting on different sides. The obvious example is the new warmth that appears to be growing between those former political enemies Trump and Putin, with Trump openly expressing his admiration for Putin, and taking on some of the latter’s authoritarian characteristics himself. Vance’s speech can be seen as a sign of America’s distancing itself from its old European allies not only militarily, but also ideologically. This is why it was – apparently (the reference here is from Musk’s ‘X’) – so enthusiastically welcomed by the Kremlin (https://x.com/jcbehrends/status/1890721064390447356), which clearly shares many of Trump’s reactionary prejudices. And it opened up the possibility of a new global division, to replace the old communist-democratic ‘Cold War’ one, between – what to call them? Dictatorship and democracy? Authoritarianism and liberalism? Reaction and Progress? ‘Populism’ and ‘Woke’? – with the two combatant armies mustered differently, and Putin and Trump – a real dictator and the wannabe one – now on the same side.

There can be little doubt just now that the Right is winning, both nationally and globally, and highly dangerously. I can understand its appeal; I may blog about this later. But I’m beginning to despair of my world.