Talk of impending civil wars – in the USA, Britain and elsewhere – is becoming disturbingly common just now. Here’s one of a number of serious academic discussions of the likelihood of one breaking out in present circumstances: https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/. I haven’t the expertise to be able to comment meaningfully on this; except to add one other possible dividing line between the opposing ‘sides’, to the ones that Professor Betz lays out, if such a war were to occur.

This is the factor of education. In both Britain and the USA, demographic studies of voters’ opinions on major issues in recent politics show that highly educated people are far more likely to vote ‘progressive’ – ‘Remain’ in Britain, ‘Democrat’ in America – than are those with less formal schooling. The latter are the ones who make up the bulk of the ‘Brexit’ and ‘MAGA’ tribes, if not necessarily of their leaders (although Trump does appear pretty dumb). I wouldn’t want to make too much of this; in Brexit’s case other major factors obviously came into it too (I’ve written on this before: https://bernardjporter.com/2019/11/25/what-is-brexit-really-about/); nor do I mean to imply that Brexiters and Trumpists are the only stupid ones; or that they are necessarily and individually stupid at all. There are good arguments on all sides. Nonetheless, this educational divide may well be significant; and also, incidentally, one that suggests a compelling motive behind Trump’s onslaught on ‘Ivy League’ colleges in recent days. (He wants to replace them with ‘trade schools’, teaching practical and business skills. No doubt The Art of the Deal would be a set text.) ‘Anti-intellectualism’ has a strong pedigree in American thought. There’s even a book about it (by Richard Hofstadter).

The problem with all this, in a ‘civil war’ context, is that it could be difficult to muster them into two separate armies – of any kind, not necessarily military. They’re too scattered: not clearly divided geographically, as the American civil warriors were; or religiously, like the 17^th century English. Regarding the ‘uneducated’ side: well, it might just be possible to make an army of them, as the Capitol attack of 6 January 2021 seemed to show. But the ‘intelligentsia’…? Could the east and West coasts of America (where most of them are) unite against what was once called ‘Godfuckistan’ (in the middle)? Again: am I going to march against the mob (even if I had two sound ankles)? And what would we call ourselves, that would not sound too ‘élitist’? (The Right hates ‘élites’.)

Of course we’d have other ways of fighting. Clever university men, mustered together at Bletchley Park, may have been crucial to the winning of World War II. (They could have been even more effective if they’d allowed the girls in at the top.) Then there’s the power of the ‘permanent state’ – highly-educated civil servants and the like – which should be fighting on our side; together with some good propagandists (us authors). If the pen really is as mighty as the sword, then we might stand a chance. (If, that is, the pens could be taken away from the Daily Mail.)

Otherwise I dread the outcome of a civil war fought across one of the lines that I see as crucially dividing both Brits and Americans today. Our opponents – the ‘Philistines’, perhaps? – would have the numbers, the anger, the grievances and – yes – the stupidity, to prevail. That’s my fear. But then, you would expect an ex-academic like me to be on the élite side. It could be regarded as an occupational prejudice.