Bored with simply surviving into old age, without much work to do, apart from posting this inconsequential blog, I’m now thinking – only thinking, as yet – of turning the academic expertise I’ve gained over the past sixty years into writing one of those ‘alternative history’ novels. You know the sort: ‘what if the Neanderthals had won their struggle for dominance over homo sapiens 40,000 years ago’; or ‘Harold had defeated William at the Battle of Hastings in 1066’; or ‘the Reformation had never caught on’; or ‘the Battle of Waterloo had turned out the other way’; or ‘the Indian Mutiny had stopped the British Empire in its tracks’; or ‘Hitler had won World War II’; or ‘Robert Kennedy had survived to become the 36th President of the USA’; or ‘Diego Maradona’s ‘hand of God’ goal in the World Cup quarter-finals of 1986 had been disallowed’…. and so on. Novels have been written based on most of these fictional scenarios (though not the Maradona one, I think), which are usually quite fun; and can also furnish food for thought for serious historians, who should never assume that anything that has happened in the past was inevitable – certainly not when it could have involved individual human agency. I’ve got the material for this project at my fingertips, to be supplemented by good old Wikipedia; and am now hoping that I may have the imagination to be able to think beyond what was, to some ‘might have beens’.
The particular ‘might have been’ that I’m choosing centres around the British General Election of May 1979, and the notion that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party actually lost it, thus presumably changing Britain’s subsequent history for at least a decade. This outcome was not inconceivable at the time – what, a woman? and a grocer’s daughter to boot? – as neither was the idea that some of her feistier ideas would not be smoothed down by their contact with political reality if she won. In fact that ‘reality’ turned out very differently from how most of us had predicted it, and so we in Britain ended up where we are now.
The novel will begin with its hero waking up on the morning of 4th May 1979 to a narrow but secure victory for James Callaghan’s Labour Party; and will continue with a story about him (or her: I’ve not decided yet; it will probably be safer for me to stick to a ‘him’), set against the events that would follow thereafter. I’ll need a good ‘plot’, probably one that involves him (or her) in the politics of the day, but not too prominently. That’s my main difficulty currently: I can’t think of one. Any ideas?
I don’t know if I’m up to this. I’ve tried my hand at speculative fiction before, but got nowhere with it. Inventing history, I have come to realise, is much more difficult than retailing and analysing real events. And I still remember my A-Level English teacher’s assessment of me when I disappointed him by announcing that I was applying to university to read History rather than English: ‘The trouble with you, Bernard, is that you have no imagination’. He may have been right.
Porter’s Pensées 
Callaghan – under the influence of the late Peter Jay – introduced Monetarism to Britain. Unemployment was soaring – it would skyrocket under Thatcher, but we weren’t to know that in 1979. Austerity was new and being sold almost as a moral virtue; it was our duty to tighten our belts for the good of the country. The government was already starting to whinge about benefit scroungers, and, as we know, once governments of any colour start punching down, they get to like it, and before you know where you are they’re blaming single mothers and TV licence dodgers for the decline in Western civilisation. In short, Thatcherism started two years before Thatcher and, i’d argue, it probably wouldn’t have made that much of a difference if he had won.
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I did not know that! But it so comports with the US under Carter. In the summer of 1978, Carter pushed and got from Republicans and conservative Dems in Congress the first capital gains tax cut. That same summer, as the Senate Dems were ready to pass an important labor reform bill, Carter publicly criticized it and said he would veto that or any labor reform bill. It is why I don’t confuse post-presidency Carter and Carter as president. His proposed military budget for the four years of what could have been his second term were essentially the same as Reagan’s, I might add. This is my concern with any What If about the Labour Party of the time. Callaghan struck me as a neolib relative to the time.
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The protagonist is, of course, you. You know your own feelings and reactions to events, you know your own history, and what you should have done in various situations. It makes the character believable, and many novels are based on the author themselves. Obviously he has a different name otherwise it would be an autobiography, which I think you should write.
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Bernard, How are you? Can you really cope with alternate reality? “The Man in the High Castle” was/is the spookiest book and Netflix series that I have even accessed…..very unsettling….never wish to go near it again. Good luck with 1979…..one wonders how far the Labour Party would have got…and the Falkland business? May Christmas be pleasant and calm, and the New Year profitable. Best wishes John Evans
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What would have happened if Argentina had invaded the Falklands with a Labour government in office? And if that government had decided to cut a peace deal with Galtieri? How would the press and establishment have reacted?
And in the spirit of Harold Wilson’s comments about the 1970 World Cup, how would the political mood have changed had Beefy Botham trod on his wicket while going for a hook early on in his historic Headingley innings in 1981?
If your English teacher was disappointed with your decision, you must have had some literary flair!
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Tom Robinson also reminds me: If Thatcher loses, does the National Front get stronger in a Callaghan Labour government? What are the ramifications of that for minorities, for women, and Britain the Common Market?
MJF
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And here is a soundtrack song to think about for your what-if of 1979. A favorite of mine, the Tom Robinson Band, from 1978! These days, though, give me Ralph Vaughan Williams even more. 🙂 Tom Robinson Band – Winter Of ’79
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Hi Bernard, As the guy who wrote the “what if” alternative history novel positing what would have happened if RFK had lived in 1968 and became president, may I offer some advice? For me, the key is to look for likely scenarios based upon historical patterns. If Thatcher lost, would Callaghan really have done so well that he would forestall a no-confidence vote for several years, and muddle through? What do Callaghan’s own personality traits and relationships tell you? Second, it would be hard to see Thatcher losing badly in the what-if scenario, so what makes us think she would be vanquished? If Callaghan merely muddles through, the disaffected youth that fueled punk rage, and new wave cynical detachment may have increased anyway, and Callaghan would have been put under pressure to do what Thatcher did with striking miners, at least to a point where Labour would have been split. Then, Thatcher would say, “I told you so!” even though we both know that’s bullshit. But it’s the type of bullshit the swing voter buys into–we just saw that here in the US with people voting for Trump, and thinking he’s going to do a better job reining in corporate power. Sadly, the opposite will prevail, but that’s the current US story.
In short, the two-sided question you want to try and answer before starting to write is, first, “Does Thatcher’s loss in 1979 mean she and her brand of Conservative politics is vanquished, or does she merely come back in 1982, 1983, or 1984? If she comes back, is she even meaner, more reactionary, than if (we now it is “when”) she had won in 1979?” The second of the two-sided question is then, “What type of Prime Minister would Callaghan prove to be in a time of internationally higher interest rates and the second oil companies’ inspired crisis–and how does Callaghan likely react to the miners’ strike which will likely come no matter who was PM?” Hope this is helpful. Mitchell J. Freedman
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